Implied Odds

Pot odds take into account only the current pot size and assume that no further bets will be made later in the poker hand. You can never be sure if your opponent will not continue to bet, unless he is already all-in. Such situations does not happen every hand, though.

More often than not, both you and your opponent will still have some chips left in your stacks after he bets and you call. Implied odds and reverse implied odds deal with such situations.

Implied odds

Implied odds are pot odds that include further bets you expect to win, should you complete your draw.

Since you can never be sure how much more (if any) chips your opponent is going to put in the pot, when you hit, it is not possible to use a mathematical formula to calculate them. You should make your decision based on your opponent style.

Opponents likely to put more chips:

 Loose-passive – fish are rarely going to fold their top pairs so when you hit, they will call your bets.
 Loose-aggressive – maniacs love to bluff and when you hit, they will bet trying to represent the hand you have to make you fold.

Opponents unlikely to put more chips:

 Rocks – they play only the nuts and fold everything else.
 Thinking aggressive players – they are good at reading other players so when you complete your draw, they will know it.

You have implied odds only against the first group of players. Against the other group, you should stick to pot odds.

Stack size and implied odds

Stack size greatly increases the importance of implied odds and change the value of many preflop starting hands. If your (or your opponents’) stack is small (e.g. 40 big blinds and less), you should have only standard pot odds in your mind. Usually you will be all-in either preflop or on the flop so there will be no further bets on later streets.

If your stacks are 100 big blinds and more, everything changes. Now the premium hands do not hold as much value as with short stacks. At the same time, some speculative hands start to be profitable, when played correctly.

Small pocket pairs

Small pairs are examples of speculative hands. Most of the time they will be a weak pair on the flop but they hit a set or better around 12% of the time (see common flop odds chart).

If the preflop raise you have to call is small (i.e. less than 5% of your stack), your opponents’ stack(s) are as yours or bigger, and they are not rocks or good thinking players, you will be getting the right implied odds to call the raise.

Unlike flushes and straights, sets are very well disguised hands and your opponents will rarely think you have them, especially on draw-heavy flops, so they will often pay you for your hand. Entering the pot with a small pair with the sole intention of hitting a set on the flop or fold is called set mining. It is extremely profitable in small stakes no limit Texas Holdem.

Suited connectors and one-gappers

Suited connectors and one-gappers are also speculative hands but they require more skill than pocket pairs to play them profitably, because straights and flushes are more noticeable and you can be against better straights and flushes more often than in case of set-over-set scenarios with small pairs. They can be very powerful with deep stacks (200 big blinds and more).

Implied odds calculation

You cannot know if and how much your opponent is going to pay you, when you complete your draw. However, you can calculate how much more you have to win for calling to be profitable.

Implied odds example

Your hole cards are AT and the flop is KQ2. With $100 already in the pot, your opponent bets $50. How much more you will have to win on later streets, when you hit one of your outs, for the call to be profitable?

You have a gutshot straight draw and an overcard, giving you a total of 7 outs. You can calculate your odds only for the turn, as you cannot be sure if your opponent will allow you to see the river for free. According to the poker odds and outs chart, your odds to hit a straight or a top pair on the turn are 15%.

Your pot odds (25%) exceed the poker odds so you cannot call this bet without being sure about your opponent putting more money on later streets. You will hit your hands 3 in 20 times, so 3 times you will win $150 ($200 in the pot less $50 you call) and 17 times you will loose $50. This gives an average loss of $20 per hand - (3 x $150 – 17 x $50) / 20 = $20.

Therefore, you need to expect to win over $20 more from your opponent each time you complete one of your draws.

You can calculate it much more easily just by subtracting your poker odds from the pot odds and multiplying it by the pot size after you call the bet, i.e. (25% - 15%) x $200 = $20.

More articles on poker probability:

 Poker odds calculator
 Poker outs and odds
 Pot odds and expected value
 Sklansky bucks
 Reverse implied odds
 Poker hand probability chart
 Common preflop odds chart
 Common flop odds chart
 Pocket pairs - flopping overcards odds

Go back to the Online Poker Strategy.